When Giants Fall

Unconventional Wisdom

Conventional wisdom says that while the emerging world has expanded rapidly in economic terms, it still lags far behind the developed world when it comes to the firepower at its disposal.

Conventional wisdom also says that the U.S. has little to worry about when it comes to the question of whether it has enough arms and soldiers to meet any threats that might arise.

Finally, conventional wisdom suggests the geopolitical up-and-comers still have a long way to go before they might be able to take on their developed peers.

After reading the following Reuters report, "East-West Military Gap Rapidly Shrinking-Report," I reckon many of you will be wondering why they call it conventional wisdom.

* Think-tank sees "global redistribution of military power"

* State-on-state conflict could rise in Asia

* China could match US military power in 10-15 years

Western cuts and swiftly rising defence spending in emerging economies are redrawing the global strategic map, a leading think-tank said on Tuesday, with the danger of conflicts between states also rising.

In its annual Global Military Balance report, the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) said the shift in economic power was already beginning to have a real military effect and closing any strategic gap.

"Western states' defence budgets are under pressure and their military procurement is constrained," said IISS director general John Chipman. "But in other regions -- notably Asia and the Middle East -- military spending and arms acquisitions are booming. There is persuasive evidence that a global redistribution of military power is under way."

Asian Pacific nations particularly China were increasing defence spending by double digits annually, he said, with growing evidence Western states were losing their technological edge in areas such as stealth technology and cyber warfare.

Most estimates suggest Washington still accounts for roughly half of all global defence spending each year, much of it spent on conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan. Estimates of Chinese defence spending vary wildly, with many analysts suspecting it dramatically underreports.

"HALF A GENERATION"

According to the report, the United States spent $693 billion on defence in 2010 -- 4.7 percent of its GDP -- compared to China's $76 billion (1.3 percent/GDP) and Britain's 57 billion dollars (2.5 percent/GDP).

Speaking to Reuters after the report launch, Chipman said if current trends were continued it would still take 15-20 years for China to achieve military parity with the U.S.

"We're talking about half a generation," he said. "The United States has always said it would never let another power get to parity so in the next few years it is going to have to make some very significant decisions on what it does."

Revolutionary Jeopardy

 

"Current Events" for 200 points:

Answer:

They will all end the same way.

 

Question:

What do these four developments have in common?

"Yemeni President Vows Not to Quit Despite Tensions Soar" (Xinhua)

"Libya's Gadhafi, Clinging to Power Amid Violence, Says He's in Tripoli" (USA Today)

"Moroccan King Holds Firm After Call For Less Power" (Reuters)

"Ivory Coast: Financial Noose Tightens As Defeated President Clings to Power" (Time)

Which Country Is Next?

For those who've been paying attention, it's clear that the upheaval we've seen in Egypt and elsewhere stems from a globally contagious shift in the social mood. Given that, most people would probably find it helpful (or even essential) to know which country or countries might be next. Thanks to The Economist, we now have a reference source, "The Shoe Thrower's Index," that attempts to answer that question.

An index of unrest in the Arab world

The chart below is the result of ascribing a weighting of 35% for the share of the population that is under 25; 15% for the number of years the government has been in power; 15% for both corruption and lack of democracy as measured by existing indices; 10% for GDP per person; 5% for an index of censorship and 5% for the absolute number of people younger than 25. Jordan comes out surprisingly low on the chart, which suggests the weighting might need to be tweaked.

Hard to Argue About Mexico's Future

Richard Proctor of Cassandra's Hypothesis asks: "Will Mexico Follow Egypt into Collapse?":

Mexico seem likely follow Egypt into collapse within two years based on falling oil revenue and rising food prices:

• Mexicans spend about 22% of their disposable income on food. In 2010 corn prices increased 52% and wheat 47%. With the floods in Australia, ethanol in the U.S. and higher fuel prices it seems likely food will consume 50% of disposable income within a year. That is an average. There will be a critical percent of the population where food costs will exceed their disposable income. Hunger will amplify risks.
• Mexico's government gets about 40% of its revenues from oil. As noted in BP [Mexico-related] data complied at Energy Export Database, Mexico's domestic consumption (black line) will force its oil revenues (green area) to drop to zero within a few years. Egypt's oil revenues dropped to about zero in 2010.

Throw in the fact that the country is rife with corruption and suffers from extreme inequality, and I'd say it's hard to argue with the good professor's assessment.

Not the Only Region

While all eyes are currently on the disruptive forces swirling through the Middle East, that is not the only region where people are beginning to anticipate big changes ahead. In "Business Leaders See Eurozone Break-Up," the Financial Times highlights a surprisingly lopsided poll about the future of the world's largest economy.

More than four out of five senior executives, or 85 per cent, said there was a chance of this happening, while two in three, or 60 per cent, said there was a chance the eurozone would break-up over the next three years.

The survey of 461 senior executives from leading companies, investment banks, hedge funds and sovereign wealth funds in Europe, the US and Asia highlights the grave concerns over the future of the eurozone, as policymakers consider reforms to tackle the problems of the indebted countries on the currency club’s periphery.

The poll, commissioned by RBC Capital markets and conducted by the Economist Intelligence Unit, singled out rising concerns over the build up of public debt in Europe and the US.

Near a Turning Point?

In his latest Inside the Ring column, the Washington Times' Bill Gertz points to a potential trouble spot in the relationship between the U.S. and its Asian rival:

Taiwan showdown

A new showdown is looming between China and the United States over arms sales to Taiwan. The Obama administration privately has decided to sell a new arms package to the island but is keeping details secret until after next week's visit by Chinese President Hu Jintao.

A senior Obama administration official told Inside the Ring that the latest multibillion-dollar arms package is expected to trigger new outrage from China's military. It includes much-needed equipment to upgrade Taiwan's aging arsenal of 145 U.S.-made F-16 jet fighters with new electronics, engines and missiles.

The new arms package could be worth up to $4 billion for defense contractors and will be the first test of Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates' efforts in Beijing this week to restart stalled military-to-military relations with China.

Beijing cut off ties with the Pentagon last year in January after Congress was notified about plans to sell $6.4 billion worth of arms to Taiwan, the island nation Beijing insists is part of its territory. In 2008, China halted the military exchange program over an earlier arms sale.

Chinese Defense Minister Gen. Liang Guanglie said after meeting with Mr. Gates on Monday that China has been "clear and consistent" in opposing arms sales to Taiwan, claiming they "seriously damaged China's core interests, and we do not want to see that happen again." He also added that "neither do we hope that the U.S. arms sales to Taiwan will again and further disrupt our bilateral and military-to-military relationship."

This comes at a time when the relationship between the two powers is already under strain, as China Military Power Mashup reports in "The Perils of Mutual Miscalculation":

The obstacles [to compromise] were underscored during Robert Gates's visit to Beijing this week. The US defence secretary had intended a confidence-building trip in the wake of last year's spats about Taiwan, North Korea and the two countries' maritime rights in the South China Sea.

The response of the People's Liberation Army was to stage-manage the maiden flight of its new stealth fighter jet only hours before Mr Gates's meeting with Mr Hu. The test of the hitherto secret J-20 inevitably fanned speculation about a power grab by China's military chiefs. Mr Gates remarked that even the Chinese president seemed surprised by the timing of the PLA's latest show of military prowess.

Chinese foreign policy experts acknowledge the rising influence of the PLA. Some of them worry about it. China's economic rise, they say, has made the case for a rapid expansion of military capabilities to match the country's burgeoning interests and vulnerabilities. The booming economy has provided the PLA with the wherewithal, while its leadership has proved adept at harnessing popular nationalism.

The risks of misunderstanding and miscalculation reach beyond the particular ambitions of the PLA. Washington, too, has its hawks. What's worrying is that the political leaderships of the two countries have thus far failed to provide an alternative narrative.

...

In any event, you do not have to take sides to see where the present standoff is leading. China builds new weapons systems designed to push US forces farther from its coastline; the US develops countermeasures. The hawks' prediction of inevitable confrontation then becomes self-fulfilling as mistrust feeds miscalculation.

There is no easy way out of this loop. China will continue to build its military and to stake its claim to a pre-eminent role in its own backyard. That is what rising powers do. The US is not about to abandon its role as the guardian of east Asian security. Great powers do not readily hand over to new ones. Anyway, most of the countries in the neighbourhood want the US to stay.

Many analysts have long warned that a misstep with regard to Taiwan could be a geopolitical game-changer. Are we nearing such a point?

How Times Have Changed

It wasn't all that long ago when President Obama stood before the Turkish parliament in Ankara and waxed on about one of our most enduring geopolitical relationships.

Turkey is a critical ally. Turkey is an important part of Europe. And Turkey and the United States must stand together -- and work together -- to overcome the challenges of our time.

My, how times have changed:

"Turkey: USA and Israel Turkey's Main Enemies, Poll" (ANSAmed)

ANKARA - According to a poll carried out by the Turkish institute Metropoll and published today, the main enemies of the Turks are the USA and Israel. A total of 1,504 people were interviewed in December. Of these, 43% indicated that the USA poses the most serious foreign threat to their country, a Muslim but laic country, an ally of Washington and NATO members since 1952. The US threat, according to 23% of the interviewed, is followed by Israel, and 63% said that the Turkish government should freeze its ties with the Jewish State, while 28% want closer ties. Iran, which according to many Western countries is equipping itself with nuclear weapons, is considered a threat by just 3% of the interviewed, and Turkey's traditional ''enemy'', Greece, only by 2%. (ANSAmed).

(Hat tip to Gates of Vienna.)

Beware of Chinese Bearing Gifts?

(Image: Source.)

"Do not trust the horse, Trojans.
Whatever it is, I fear the Greeks even when they bring gifts."
--Virgil's Aeneid, Book 2, 19 BC

It's a strategy the Chinese have employed on any number of occasions: provide grants, loans, and infrastructure to financially-strapped and economically-disadvantaged nations (in places like Africa, for example) in exchange for strengthened economic (read: trade) ties.

While the targeted nations (especially their economic and political elites) derive some measure of benefit, the Asian power usually garners the lion's share of the long-term gains, including securing stable and reliable sources of essential commodities for its large and growing population.

Based on the following Spiegel Online report, "China Expanding its Influence in Europe" I guess it's ailing Europe's turn to roll in the Trojan Chinese horse?

China is seizing on Europe's debt problems to expand its influence on the continent with large-scale investments and purchases of government bonds issued by highly-indebted states. The strategy could push Europe into the same financial dependency on China that is posing a dilemma for the US.

Portugal's cavalry staged a magnificent parade to welcome Chinese President and Party General Secretary Hu Jintao, 67. Suddenly, one of the horses reared up and threw its rider to the ground. The state guest from China waited motionless until the end of the ceremony before he went to the fallen cavalryman, embraced him, and asked if he was all right.

There was symbolic value to Hu's caring gesture in early November in Lisbon: China's foremost party organ, the People's Daily, wrote enthusiastically that this was the "Best moment for the world to see a true China in flesh and blood."

Given the acute debt crisis in the euro zone, there is a wealth of opportunities for China to show sympathy in Europe these days. With pledges of financial aid and statements of support for the euro, Beijing is endeavoring to stabilize its largest trading partner -- primarily in pursuit of Chinese interests.

Even before his arrival in Lisbon, many in Portugal were yearning for Hu to come to the rescue. In view of the alarming Portuguese government debt, the Chinese leader promised that he would support the country with "concrete measures." He said China intended to double bilateral trade by 2015.

This wasn't exactly what the cash-strapped Portuguese were hoping to hear. They wanted Hu to also help out by buying government bonds. Nonetheless, before his visit, Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Fu Ying had already hinted that this was a definite possibility.

Offers of Aid for Troubled Euro Members

Indeed, the rising superpower is cleverly capitalizing on the euro crisis to extend its long-term political and economic influence in Europe. Chinese offers of aid are mainly directed at the shakiest members of the euro zone, the heavily indebted so-called PIIGS countries (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain). The People's Republic would like to win them over as long-term allies in the EU.

In the past, China had shown itself to be a "friend" of Greece, Spain and Italy, and it purchased their government bonds at a time when other investors had fled, Premier Wen Jiabao said during a trip to Europe in October. "We will continue to provide aid and help certain countries overcome their difficulties."

Click here to read the rest.

Looking East

Saudi Arabia has been one of our staunchest allies during most of the past 60 years. It's no coincidence, however, that the relationship was at its strongest when America's standing in the world was at or near its zenith. The question now, of course, is how enduring the ties between the two countries will be with U.S. influence on the wane. If the following report from The Economist, "Looking East: The Saudis Are Hedging Their Bets," is any guide, the answer is: "not very."

CHINA, the world’s second-largest consumer of oil, is poised to buy more Saudi oil than the United States does. Last year it actually did so, though this year’s figures suggest that the Americans may again be level-pegging as the biggest buyer. In the next two years, however, China looks set to become consistently the Saudis’ key customer. Moreover, the Saudis are also now buying more Chinese goods—mostly food, textiles, hardware and heavy industrial stuff—than American ones.

Since he came to the throne in 2005, King Abdullah has adopted a pro-Asian, “look east” trade policy. More than half of Saudi oil now goes to Asia, against around 14%, at the latest count, to the United States. Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest oil company, owns a refinery in Qingdao province and has another, in Fujian, as a joint venture with Sinopec, a Chinese petroleum giant, and ExxonMobil, an American one. Meanwhile, Chinese firms have begun to invest in infrastructure and industry in Saudi Arabia, including in an aluminium smelter in the southern province of Jizan, at a cost of $3 billion. Saudi Arabia now sends students on scholarships to Chinese universities, and some rich Saudis, more used to shopping for Gucci in New York or London, are heading to once-obscure Chinese cities to buy furniture.

Like many African countries, the Saudis like the lack of political conditions that China attaches to its economic relations. Although American officials these days do not seem to press the Saudis very hard to become democratic or to uphold human rights, America’s media and its rights lobbies are relentlessly critical. Meanwhile, Saudis in general dislike what they see as America’s bias towards Israel. Recent American visa curbs against Arabs, including Saudis, have made matters worse.

But this reorientation should not be exaggerated. While widening their market for oil sales, the Saudis still need arms, military support and technology. Here China still lags far behind America, which remains the Saudis’ military mainstay: an arms deal worth $60 billion is about to be clinched. The presence of American troops in the Gulf, though no longer on Saudi soil, reassures the Saudis—and China, since it can bank on America’s presence.

As a net capital exporter with only a basic education system, Saudi Arabia needs foreign know-how and training more than it needs foreign cash for investment. Except for building infrastructure, it still looks for skills from the United States, Europe and Japan. (The Gulf’s other economic heavyweight, the United Arab Emirates, has asked a South Korean consortium to build the emirates’ first nuclear power plant.)

Moreover, the Chinese and Saudis do have some bones of contention. China has accused Saudi Arabia of dumping petrochemicals on its markets. And a much-heralded project, a railway between Mecca and the holy sites of Mina and Mount Arafat, recently built by the Chinese, has ended in a row, with China Railways threatening to sue the Saudi authorities for the losses it has made on the investment. Some firms would have been put off by the fact that non-Muslims are barred from working in Mecca, so China simply converted hundreds of railway workers to Islam. But the project ran into problems over the allocation of land, cost overruns and even workers’ riots, which rarely occur in Saudi Arabia.

Should Have Expected It

When I read this story two days ago --

"Seoul May Consider Bringing Back US Nuke Arms" (Xinhua)

SEOUL - The Republic of Korea (ROK) might consider redeploying US tactical weapons here as the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) reportedly seeks a uranium enrichment program, Seoul's defense chief said Monday.

"(The government) will consider what you've just said" in consultation with Washington, defense minister Kim Tae-young was quoted as saying by local media when asked by a lawmaker whether Seoul would consider bringing back US nuclear weapons on its soil.

and this one yesterday --

"Militarized States" (Newsweek)

Under Kim Jong-il, North Korea has developed a reputation as one of the world’s most erratic and unpredictable regimes, but he at least held clear control. Now, with a broader range of military men weighing in on policy, it’s possible that the North will become even more prone to lashing out at its neighbors, since no single leader in Pyongyang can command order. Many Korea watchers believe the March incident in which the North allegedly sank a South Korean naval vessel, the Cheonan, killing 46 sailors, was the work of Pyongyang’s civilian leaders, trying to take a tough stance against Seoul to please the military and thus help ensure Army backing for the young Kim.

I guess I should have been expecting this --

"North Korea Threatens Further 'Merciless Strikes' After Artillery Attack on South Korean Island Kills Two Marines" (Daily Mail)

South Korean troops were on their highest peacetime alert tonight amid fears of a new cross-border artillery bombardment after North Korea warned it could continue 'merciless strikes' on its bitter rival.

Tensions between the two countries were said to be at their 'worst levels for decades' following the death of two South Korean marines killed today in one of the heaviest attacks on its neighbour since the Korean War ended in 1953.

The artillery barrage - the South fired back and scrambled a fighter jet to the area - was close to a disputed maritime border on the west of the divided peninsula and the scene of deadly clashes in the past.

At least 200 shells pounded a military base on Yeonpyeong island, 75 miles west of the South Korean capital Seoul, near a disputed maritime border, killing the marines and injuring 17 of their colleagues.

Six civilians were also wounded and TV pictures showed blazing buildings, fleeing civilians and columns of smoke rising over the island.

Fading Star

In celebrity-filled magazines like People or Us Weekly, certain individuals keep gracing the pages, their faces staring out at you, time and time again.

In some cases, the appearances start to diminish, because those former bright lights are no longer seen as the big draws they once were.

Eventually, they are not even featured in brief cameos, and fewer and fewer readers wonder where they've gone.

When I read reports like the following from Agence France-Presse, "China, India, Russia Vow to Deepen Cooperation," it makes me think of another powerful "star" whose lights are beginning to dim. Can you guess which one I mean?

The foreign ministers of developing giants China, India and Russia pledged on Monday to step up cooperation in trade, energy and geopolitical affairs including climate change.

The pledges were made in a joint communique after two days of meetings in the central Chinese city of Wuhan by Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi and his Russian and Indian counterparts Sergei Lavrov and S.M. Krishna.

The communique also said China, India and Russia had deepened cooperation on international and regional issues during the talks, but stressed that such cooperation would not target "any other country".

The foreign ministers said they supported a "multi-polar, equitable and democratic world order" and expressed their commitment to the use of "multilateral instruments" for finding solutions to global and regional issues.

China and Russia are members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, a grouping of mostly central Asian states that many view as a bid by China and Russia to counter global US influence.

India is an observer country in the body.

They also pledged to further explore potential cooperation in energy, high-tech sectors, innovation, aerospace, cultural exchanges and disaster relief, the communique said, without providing details.

Noting that the global recovery remained "uneven, fragile and unbalanced", the three ministers called for worldwide coordinated efforts to promote "strong, sustainable and balanced" growth and oppose "all forms of protectionism".

History On My Side

Some have questioned my prediction that it won't be long before Europe as we know it no longer exists. Well, if the following is any guide, I reckon that, at the very least, history is on my side.

(Hat tip to Infectious Greed.)

Expedient Alignments

Even though it's becoming clear that the U.S. won't be able to dictate the global agenda in the way that it has during much of the postwar era, that doesn't mean our country will be totally marginalized, at least in the short run.

In the kind of world I see immediately ahead, where no one nation rules the roost, I expect that many will find it expedient to remain or become aligned with America for some period of time, until the eoplitical dust settles or a new pecking order is firmly in place.

Already we are seeing evidence of that, as the New York Times reveals in "China’s Fast Rise Leads Neighbors to Join Forces":

HANOI, Vietnam — China’s military expansion and assertive trade policies have set off jitters across Asia, prompting many of its neighbors to rekindle old alliances and cultivate new ones to better defend their interests against the rising superpower.

A whirl of deal-making and diplomacy, from Tokyo to New Delhi, is giving the United States an opportunity to reassert itself in a region where its eclipse by China has been viewed as inevitable.

...

The deals and alliances are not intended to contain China. But they suggest a palpable shift in the diplomatic landscape, on vivid display as leaders from 18 countries gathered this weekend under the wavelike roof of Hanoi’s futuristic convention center, not far from Ho Chi Minh’s mausoleum, for a meeting suffused by tensions between China and its neighbors.

...

Most Asian countries, even as they argue that China will inevitably replace the United States as the top regional power, have grown concerned at how quickly that shift is occurring, and what China the superpower may look like.

China’s big trading partners are complaining more loudly that it intervenes too aggressively to keep its currency undervalued. Its recent restrictions on exports of crucial rare earths minerals, first to Japan and then to the United States and Europe, raised the prospect that it may use its dominant positions in some industries as a diplomatic and political weapon.

And its rapid naval expansion, combined with a more strident defense of its claims to disputed territories far off its shores, has persuaded Japan, South Korea, Vietnam and Singapore to reaffirm their enthusiasm for the American security umbrella.

A Notable Shift

Many people believe that global population increases are the key driver when it comes to the issue of resource constraints. But changes in rates of per capita consumption are just as -- or more -- important. In fast-growing and heavily-populated countries like China and India, the urge to emulate the West and enjoy the fruits of increased wealth is boosting demand for goods and services that require incrementally greater resources to produce. As a result, writes U.S. Global Investors CEO Frank Holmes in a post at his Frank Talk blog, "Chart of the Week — Shifting Energy Demand," the world is seeing a notable shift in the pattern of global energy consumption.

Global energy consumption fell for the first time in nearly three decades last year as slowed manufacturing and idled factories drove consumption lower. Overall, global energy consumption fell 1.1 percent in 2009, the largest decline since Ronald Reagan’s inauguration.

Contracting consumption in the developed world was the largest driver of the decline.

This week’s chart breaks down share of global energy consumption by developed markets—the U.S., Western Europe, Japan and others represented by the Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD)—and the rest of the world. You can see that the OECD’s share of global energy consumption has tumbled from nearly 70 percent in 1965 to well below 50 percent last year.

 

Meanwhile, the lights are shining bright in emerging markets. Emerging markets’ share of global energy consumption has more than doubled since the 1960s. More importantly, the speed of advance by emerging markets has accelerated the past few years, stealing away more than a 10 percent share of the total since 2003.

Credit Suisse expects oil demand to grow 9.3 percent in China, 4 percent in Latin America and 4.4 percent in the Middle East in 2010. In contrast, it expects oil demand to contract by nearly 2 percent in Western Europe and manage only meager growth in North America.

The global recession has allowed emerging markets to gain ground as activity in the developed world slowed to a crawl, but the long-term trend is a significant one and will likely continue. Improving economic conditions in the developing world means more people have more money to spend on personal cars and electricity for their homes. Also, a wealthier population consumes more goods and electronics which leads to more manufacturing activity and increased energy demand.

Not So Black-and-White

When it comes to politics or geopolitics, people find it easy to see things in two dimensions. Republican or Democrat, right-wing or left-wing, ally or adversary -- there's only one side or the other. It is through such a prism that many have viewed the challenge taking shape between the current global leader, the United States, and its Asian rival, China. But others don't necessarily buy into this black-or-white perspective. As Risk Watchdog notes in "China And Turkey: A Partnership To Reshape The World?" the final outcome may well entail a dramatically different arrangement.

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao’s visit to Turkey earlier this month resulted in a ‘strategic partnership’ being signed, which is expected to lead to bilateral trade trebling to US$50bn by 2015, and to US$100bn by 2020. Although the trade relationship is benefiting China more right now, with Turkey running a US$11bn deficit in 2009, Chinese companies are already investing heavily in upgrading Turkey’s rail network, and rising numbers of Chinese tourists should further boost the Turkish economy.

Perhaps more interesting are the geopolitical implications of a Sino-Turkish partnership. Chinese fighter planes recently took part in air force exercises with Turkey in what was the first time that a NATO member had hosted Chinese jets. The annual Anatolian Eagle exercises are usually a NATO affair with Israel in participation, but this year Ankara chose Beijing as its partner. None of this means that Turkey is about to quit NATO, expel the US from its base at Incirlik, and abandon its plans to join the EU. What it does mean is that Turkey is diversifying its geopolitical vectors, having already developed close ties with Russia and Iran. Essentially, Ankara is seeking to become an independent global power, and thus needs to cultivate new allies.

 

China and Turkey – Geopolitical Influence Vectors

By now you’ll be familiar with the notion that the rise of emerging markets (EMs) is allowing such countries to diversify their economic relationships away from the West (i.e. US and Europe). Well, the same is also true geopolitically. China offers one potential anchor, and the BRIC countries have already held two summits (albeit of limited impact), but we will also see more groups such as VIRUS (Venezuela-Iran-Russia) emerge.

It will be interesting to see how far Sino-Turkish strategic cooperation evolves. In my flash-forward I can see a time 20 or 30 years from now when China has developed a formal alliance with Turkey that includes Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, spanning the entire length of southern Eurasia (essentially restoring the now defunct CENTO, but guided by China instead of the US/UK). Such an alliance would be in a position to exert decisive influence in the Middle East, Central Asia, South Asia, and perhaps East and South East Asia. In other words, it could become the most powerful force in the known universe.