Seeing It Again

OK, I guess I'm a little frustrated.

It started with my 2007 book, when those who had failed to see Financial Armageddon coming or who were slow to grasp what was going on were suddenly being treated as knowledgeable "experts" who knew just what was happening and why.

And now we're seeing it again: mainstream analysts suddenly talking about the prospect of growing unrest and heightened instability around the world even though I (and some others) have been forecasting a souring of the social mood for quite some time (as some of you know, the third chapter of When Giants Fall, published in March 2009, is entitled "A Future of Violence.")

Here's one example:

"ANALYSIS-After the Crisis, a Worldwide Rise in Unrest?" (Reuters)

With the Middle East in turmoil, other authoritarian states jumpy and post-crisis economic pain prompting protest in western Europe and elsewhere, some suspect a systemic rise in worldwide unrest might just be beginning.

Instability in the already volatile oil-producing Middle East could produce a feedback loop where unrest pushes up energy prices, fuelling inflation and deepening discontent both in the region and around the world.

In most countries, the so-called "misery index" -- an aggregation of unemployment and inflation long seen as a warning of protest and instability -- is pushing higher.

"After an extended period of economic growth and political apathy across the developed and emerging worlds, we may have reached a new political cycle -- one where populations take out their grievances on their leaders and their associates," wrote Citi political analyst Tina Fordham. "This won't be limited to the emerging world."

In democracies, elections provide a release valve -- Ireland has seen some of the worst post-crisis economic pain but minimal unrest in part because voters knew they could oust the government they blame for the crisis in elections this weekend.

But Greece, Britain and others have seen anger expressed in the streets as their governments push through austerity, arguing they have little choice but to rein in unsustainable deficits even if it means cutting services, pay and benefits.

Most analysts agree North Africa's demographic "youth bulge", relatively high unemployment, long-serving leaders and recent Internet penetration made it particularly volatile. But strains are clearly visible elsewhere.

Almost without exception, authoritarian states around the world appear to have seen at least a modest uptick in protest following the ousting of presidents in Egypt and Tunisia.

Even China, whose breakneck growth has long been seen limiting discontent, has blocked terms such as "Egypt" on social networking sites and stepped-up arrests at small demonstrations.

"PERFECT STORM"

"Two crises are happening at the same time - which is unprecedented I think," said Joel Hirst, International affairs fellow at the US-based Council for Foreign Relations.

"An economic disaster and 'readjustment' of the developed world while the developing world fights for their freedoms. Add in there the oil/energy price, which could be seen as the link between the two, and it makes for a perfect storm."

Ah well, instead of getting worked up about it, maybe I just need a better PR agent.

Comments

[roger]

The mother of all storms is just ahead.
It seems that as the world gets more crowded,
paranoia increases accordingly, as the world
resources diminish,human madness grows, looking
for security in more powerful weapons simply makes
the world more dangerous, democracy is turning
into it's opposite,chaos.
Choose any system you want, the problem is us!

[Christopher Hill]

Those who had concerns several years ago about a coming financial crash and bothered to do any in-depth research on it most likely came across Michael Panzner's work. Only a handful of individuals were sounding the alarm at this time- Panzner being one of them. "Financial Armageddon" will be remembered as one of the more prophetic financial texts of the first decade of the 21st century, and its author, an authentic "crash prophet."

[roger]

I dislike the word prophet,very unscientific.
As an example, in the 60's it was easy to see
that no country could consume 50% of the worlds
resources and not antagonize the rest of the world
it was also easy to see corporate monopoly in the making,
later in 1987 pinning Greenspan as a phony and an
opportunist was not hard to see,but you know what? in those days those views where considered iconoclastic and weird.

[Michael Panzner]

Wow, Christopher. Thank you.
(For those who were wondering, I read each and every comment. Though I don't often respond, I value the input.)