Some of those who dismiss the concept of peak oil make note of the fact that large energy users have not been particularly supportive. However, that may be changing.
The UK Industry Task-Force on Peak Oil and Energy Security (ITPOES), a group comprised of six British companies "concerned that threats to energy security are not receiving the attention they merit," has just published a report calling for immediate action by the government and businesses in the United Kingdom to address looming challenges.
Entitled "The Oil Crunch - a Wake-Up Call for the UK Economy," the report argues that "oil shortages, insecurity of supply and price volatility will destabilise economic, political and social activity within five years."
Here is the Foreword:
The credit crunch of 2008 foreshadowed major economic, political and social upheaval. It stress-tested the responses of governments, policy-makers and businesses to the extreme. If only there had been greater time to prepare for its impact and a greater level of understanding about the issues.
The next five years will see us face another crunch - the oil crunch. This time, we do have the chance to prepare. The challenge is to use that time well.
As we reach maximum oil extraction rates, the era of cheap oil is behind us. We must plan for a world in which oil prices are likely to be both higher and more volatile and where oil price shocks have the potential to destabilise economic, political and social activity.
Virtually every sector of our economy is still dependent on oil. This is why it is vital that whichever party forms the next government, they have a coherent set of policies to help the UK adapt. This is especially important for the UK, and other developed economies, which have been so reliant on low-cost oil for decades.
There are two challenges for government and policy-makers. Firstly, to recognise the situation we face, and secondly to take action to mitigate the worst implications of the crunch.
Unless we do so, we face a situation during the term of the next government where fuel price unrest could lead to shortages in consumer products and the UK’s energy security will be significantly compromised. This has the potential to hit UK business and commerce as well as the most disadvantaged in society with yet another crisis.
While responsibility for addressing these changes must be taken up by government, we must also build a coalition of interests including businesses and the public if we are to implement the changes needed to help us adapt and prosper.
The energy sector is facing major challenges over the next decade with the need to green the energy mix, maintain security of supply, while at the same time minimising the cost to customers. Scottish and Southern Energy, for instance, are investing in renewable generating capacity and decarbonising electricity production, partly so that the UK is less exposed to volatile fuel prices.
Our transport system, which is central to our economy and social fabric, is largely dependent on fossil fuels and older combustion technologies. Businesses such as Stagecoach and Virgin are at the forefront of the drive to shift to newer, cleaner technologies and more sustainable public transport.
Our urban infrastructure also needs to respond to these changes. We are placing ever greater emphasis on the need for energy efficient buildings and the design of energy efficient urban developments. We are also looking to deploy new technologies within the fabric of our buildings and cities that will enable us to generate cleaner and more efficient energy in future. Arup and Solarcentury are all contributing to the development of these activities.
The impacts of climate change make this an urgent task. However the addition of a peak in oil production and the need to find replacements will speed up that urgency and add even greater focus.
Our message to government and businesses is clear. Act now. If we don’t, we run the risk of a return to the oil price shocks of the 1970s and 2008 with all the inherent uncertainty and trauma that brought.
Don’t let the oil crunch catch us out in the way that the credit crunch did.
Richard Branson, Founder, Virgin Group
Ian Marchant, CEO, Scottish & Southern Energy
Brian Souter, CEO, Stagecoach Group
Philip Dilley, Chairman, Arup
Jeremy Leggett, Chairman, Solarcentury
And here is a video with remarks from two members of the group (via YouTube):
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