Latin America. It's not the first place people think of when there's talk about an arms race. Usually, the discussion centers on traditional hotspots like the Middle East, or Africa, or parts of Asia. Nowadays, the resource-rich continent to our south is experiencing a growing influx of weapons and military technology. In fact, given developments like this:
"US Builds Up Its Bases in Oil-Rich South America" (The Independent)
The United States is massively building up its potential for nuclear and non-nuclear strikes in Latin America and the Caribbean by acquiring unprecedented freedom of action in seven new military, naval and air bases in Colombia. The development – and the reaction of Latin American leaders to it – is further exacerbating America's already fractured relationship with much of the continent.
The new US push is part of an effort to counter the loss of influence it has suffered recently at the hands of a new generation of Latin American leaders no longer willing to accept Washington's political and economic tutelage. President Rafael Correa, for instance, has refused to prolong the US armed presence in Ecuador, and US forces have to quit their base at the port of Manta by the end of next month.
So Washington turned to Colombia, which has not gone down well in the region. The country has received military aid worth $4.6bn (£2.8bn) from the US since 2000, despite its poor human rights record. Colombian forces regularly kill the country's indigenous people and other civilians, and last year raided the territory of its southern neighbour, Ecuador, causing at least 17 deaths.
President Hugo Chavez of Venezuela, who has not forgotten that US officers were present in government offices in Caracas in 2002 when he was briefly overthrown in a military putsch, warned this month that the bases agreement could mean the possibility of war with Colombia.
In August, President Evo Morales of Bolivia called for the outlawing of foreign military bases in the region. President Manuel Zelaya of Honduras, overthrown in a military coup d'état in June and initially exiled, has complained that US forces stationed at the Honduran base of Palmerola collaborated with Roberto Micheletti, the leader of the plotters and the man who claims to be president.
And, this being US foreign policy, a tell-tale trail of oil is evident. Brazil had already expressed its unhappiness at the presence of US naval vessels in its massive new offshore oilfields off Rio de Janeiro, destined soon to make Brazil a giant oil producer eligible for membership in Opec.
The fact that the US gets half its oil from Latin America was one of the reasons the US Fourth Fleet was re-established in the region's waters in 2008. The fleet's vessels can include Polaris nuclear-armed submarines – a deployment seen by some experts as a violation of the 1967 Tlatelolco Treaty, which bans nuclear weapons from the continent.
Indications of US willingness to envisage the stationing of nuclear weapons in Colombia are seen as an additional threat to the spirit of nuclear disarmament. After the establishment of the Tlatelolco Treaty in 1967, four more nuclear-weapon-free zones were set up in Africa, the South Pacific, South-east Asia and Central Asia. Between them, the five treaties cover nearly two-thirds of the countries of the world and almost all the southern hemisphere.
The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), the world's leading think-tank about disarmament issues, has now expressed its worries about the US-Colombian arrangements.
With or without nuclear weapons, the bilateral agreement on the seven Colombian bases, signed on 30 October in Bogota, risks a costly new arms race in a region. SIPRI, which is funded by the Swedish government, said it was concerned about rising arms expenditure in Latin America draining resources from social programmes that the poor of the region need.
Much of the new US strategy was clearly set out in May in an enthusiastic US Air Force (USAF) proposal for its military construction programme for the fiscal year 2010. One Colombian air base, Palanquero, was, the proposal said, unique "in a critical sub-region of our hemisphere where security and stability is under constant threat from... anti-US governments".
The proposal sets out a scheme to develop Palanquero which, the USAF says, offers an opportunity for conducting "full-spectrum operations throughout South America.... It also supports mobility missions by providing access to the entire continent, except the Cape Horn region, if fuel is available, and over half the continent if un-refuelled". ("Full-spectrum operations" is the Pentagon's jargon for its long-established goal of securing crushing military superiority with atomic and conventional weapons across the globe and in space.)
Palanquero could also be useful in ferrying arms and personnel to Africa via the British mid-Atlantic island of Ascension, French Guiana and Aruba, the Dutch island off Venezuela. The US has access to them all.
The USAF proposal contradicted the assurances constantly issued by US diplomats that the bases would not be used against third countries. These were repeated by the Colombian military to the Colombian congress on 29 July. That USAF proposal was hastily reissued this month after the signature of the agreement – but without the reference to "anti-US governments". This has led to suggestions of either US government incompetence, or of a battle between a gung-ho USAF and a State Department conscious of the damage done to US relations with Latin America by its leaders' strong objections to the proposal.
..and this:
"Russia Building Arms Plants in Venezuela" (Reuters)
Russia is building arms plants in Venezuela to produce AK-103 automatic rifles and cartridges and is finalizing contracts to send 53 military helicopters to the Andean nation, Moscow's envoy to Venezuela said Monday.
Ambassador Vladmir Zaemskiy told a news conference that Russian engineers and Venezuelan construction firms were building the rifle and cartridge plants which, when operational, would employ more than 1,500 workers.
He gave no completion date for the plants under construction in the central state of Aragua.
Details about Moscow's military shipments and projects have been scarce since socialist President Hugo Chavez's government began signing military agreements with Russia back in 2001.
In recent years, Venezuela has bought over $4 billion in weapons from Russia, including 24 Sukhoi fighter jets. Critics say Caracas is fueling an arms race in Latin America. Chavez says he is modernizing the military for defensive purposes.
When Chavez he returned from his latest trip to Russia in September, he said Russia had agreed to lend Venezuela $2.2 billion to purchase 92 tanks and an S-300 missile system that can shoot down fighter jets and cruise missiles.
Two years ago, Russia agreed to sell the same S-300 system to Iran but has dragged its feet over delivering the weapons amid U.S. and Israeli concerns they will be used to defend Iran's nuclear installations.
Zaemskiy declined to provide details on delivery dates for the tanks and missile system. He could not say if Moscow already disbursed part of the $2.2 billion loan.
But he added that "big contracts" were being finalized to deliver 53 "Mil" helicopters that can be used by the Venezuelan armed forces and for humanitarian missions.
Between 2006 and 2008, Moscow delivered a total of about 59 military helicopters to Venezuela, according to data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
Russia was also providing "a complete range" of military spare parts to Venezuela, Zaemskiy said. It is also transferring technology and building technical maintenance centers.
"As a result of this cooperation, Venezuela's defense capacity has increased considerably, as well as its level of technological independence," the ambassador said.
...and this:
"Bilateral Tensions Sparked in Latin America" (Agence France-Presse)
With Venezuelan troops mobilised on the border with Colombia, and Peru accusing Chile of military espionage, bilateral tensions are once again flaring across Latin America.
As has often been the case in recent years, the worst crisis involves Venezuela's leftist President Hugo Chavez and Colombia's conservative President Alvaro Uribe, with Washington playing a supporting role.
Chavez called on his army earlier this month to "prepare for war" in an angry response to Bogota's decision to give US forces permission to carry out anti-drug operations from Colombian bases.
Colombia for its part has criticised Caracas for racheting up arms purchases from Russia.
'Neither of the two presidents will pursue military escalation'
Venezuela has spent about six billion dollars on weapons from Russia since 2005.
Bogota turned to the United Nations Security Council and Organisation of American States for support after Chavez's most recent declarations, prompting the Venezuelan leader to insist he had no plans to launch a war.
"The tensions between Colombia and Venezuela are intensifying, but neither of the two presidents really seems to intend to resort to military action," said Rosendo Fraga, director of the New Majority, an Argentine research centre.
Fraga said the timing of the crisis is good for Uribe, who is currently trying to convince his country's constitutional court to approve plans for a referendum that would allow him a third term in office.
"Chavez, who is facing economic problems in his country, also sees the confrontation with Uribe as a way to close ranks," Fraga said.
Venezuela just entered a recession and the country is suffering from electricity and water shortages caused by a prolonged drought.
But while Fraga doubts either head of state will push the crisis towards military action, he warned that "three non-governmental actors" active along the border between the two countries could intervene.
The Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), drug traffickers and paramilitaries "could be interested in provoking a wider conflict," he said.
..it's no wonder we're seeing reports like this:
"Latin American Defence Plans Move Forward Despite Recession" (DefenceWeb)
Although Latin American country budgets have been cut, defence spending for the most part has not.
Despite the global recession, Latin American defence spending between 2010 and 2014 is expected to total some $267.8 billion, with Brazil taking the lead with a projected defence budget of $121 billion during the period, according to Forecast International’s “The Military Market for Latin America.”
“This is particularly good news as funding obstacles have long limited Latin American defence plans,” the US research house says. “Nearly every Latin American nation has plans to replace or upgrade its creaky force structure, with some countries having more success than others.”
South Africa has strong defence links with Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Chile.
The Latin American “arms race” is based on necessity rather than threat, and rumours of a regional arms race have been circulating for the past few years. However, fears of an arms race “could prod governments to finally address longstanding force structure revitalisation needs,” said Forecast International’s Latin America and Caribbean analyst Rebecca Barrett.
“Brazil, for example, had two ambitious programmes that were dropped from defence plans and budgets that were suddenly resurrected as of 2008.”
With a stable economy that appears to be pushing through the recession quite well, Brazilian defence plans are moving along accordingly. Years of strict budgeting have put Brazil in a position to finally advance the Navy’s nuclear submarine program and the Air Force’s fighter requirement.
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