Back in March, Stratfor published the second of a three-part series on China’s development of a "blue-water navy" -- that is, a maritime force capable of operating across the deep waters of open oceans. In "Part 2: China’s Plan for a Blue-Water Fleet," the global intelligence firm detailed some of the background behind those efforts:
In 1999, as the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) marked its 50th anniversary, Chinese naval officials already were planning to expand the range and role of the navy, with a clear eye toward moving beyond a traditional coastal defense capability (the so-called "green-water" navy) to a true "blue-water," or oceangoing, navy. But they knew the change would be neither quick nor easy. It would require not only new ships, but also new logistics systems, new training and new communications protocol -- in essence, an entirely new navy.
Beyond the obvious budget constraints, other hurdles loomed, including debate over the pros and cons of a carrier fleet, domestic security concerns that would shift budgets and attention back to dry land and the age-old Chinese concern over the strategic logic of an expeditionary navy.
Clearly, developing an entirely new navy would not happen overnight. Moving from a coastal fleet to an expeditionary fleet would take at least a generation, and the PLAN needed a way to maintain its coastal mission while expanding its operational reach long before such a transition could be completed. (Chinese analysts have begun looking into building a coast guard, patterned after that of the United States, that would take on the coastal role while the navy focused on blue-water force projection.) To accomplish this transition, the PLAN embarked upon four steps that are not necessarily sequential; action on one does not depend on the completion of another, nor do all the steps need to be accomplished in full. Taken together, however, these overlapping steps create a path for China to protect its interests while moving toward its objective of deploying a robust blue-water navy:
- Secure China's claimed exclusive economic zone (EEZ), which includes most of the South China Sea, in order to create a maritime buffer similar to the terrestrial buffers of Xinjiang and Tibet.
- "Extend" the Chinese shoreline via port agreements and island development to create a string of logistical hubs that would enable coastal vessels to operate farther from the mainland.
- Develop and deploy asymmetrical countermeasures to deal with the technological gap between China and the world's dominant naval power, the United States.
- Begin building the ships, logistics train and doctrine for a truly expeditionary navy.
Ten years after making its naval ambitions known, it appears that China has made the sort of progress that can make even a global superpower feel nervous, if the following Associated Press report, "US Admiral Concerned about China Military Buildup," is anything to go by.
A U.S. Navy admiral expressed new concern Friday over China's military buildup and urged Beijing to be clearer about its intentions.
With China's military growing at an "unprecedented rate," the U.S. wants to ensure that expansion doesn't destabilize the region, Rear Adm. Kevin Donegan told reporters on a visit to the Chinese territory of Hong Kong.
Donegan referred to China's expanded weaponry. His remarks echoed the concerns of other U.S. military leaders who have said the growth in China's military spending — up almost 15 percent in the 2009 budget — raises questions about how Beijing plans on deploying its new power.
"When we see a military growing at that rate, we're interested in transparency and the understanding of the uses of that military," said Donegan, commander of the USS George Washington aircraft carrier strike group, a key part of the U.S. Pacific Fleet.
Donegan's comments come as a top Chinese general visits the United States on a mission to strengthen trust between the two militaries and dispel U.S. concerns about the growth of the People's Liberation Army.
Xu Caihou, the PLA's second-highest ranking officer, told President Barack Obama on Wednesday that ties between the two countries' militaries play "an important role in enhancing strategic mutual trust and deepening their pragmatic cooperation," according to Chinese media reports.
China has boosted military spending by more than 10 percent annually for almost two decades, and the official figure of $71 billion this year is thought by many analysts to represent only a portion of total defense spending. It still amounts to only a fraction of U.S. defense spending.
China says much of the increase is used to improve salaries and living conditions for soldiers, but it has also been adding sophisticated new warships, submarines, fighter jets and other weapons systems to its arsenal. PLA leaders have also said they are considering building an aircraft carrier, but such a development is thought to be years, if not decades, away.
Donegan acknowledged the possibility of a Chinese aircraft carrier, but also said he was concerned with anti-access weapons. This class of weapons includes missiles and submarines that can threaten U.S. forces in the region and prevent them responding in the event of a crisis.
"I am absolutely concerned," Donegan said.
He went on to say, "When a navy is doing that, we just want to make sure it's transparent enough so those in the region understand what they're doing."including a special forces unit and two ship-borne helicopters.
In essence , the US is telling China,its OK for us to
rule the waves globally,but you should
stick to the Yangtze river.Do they really think the Chinese are
that stupid?
Posted by: roger | October 31, 2009 at 09:01 PM