'China Is Destined to Be the Leader of the World'

Many analysts have speculated on China's powerful long-range ambitions, both within and outside its immediate sphere of influence.

Not surprisingly, the Chinese themselves have kept their cards close to the chest, to avoid raising too many alarm bells among prospective rivals and to thwart efforts that might undermine more immediate objectives, including the push to achieve self-sustaining economic momentum.

Nonetheless, it would be difficult for any country that apparently sees itself as the sole-superpower-in-waiting to maintain a "poker face" for too long. In fact, a recent post by Paul Goble at WindowonEurasia, "Chinese Bestseller Has Russian Far East Falling under Beijing’s Influence," reveals a degree of nationalistic exuberance in China that many outsiders might find shocking.

A new Chinese bestselling book suggesting that Beijing will dominate the Russian Far East in the coming decades has raised questions among Russian experts not only about how much this book reflects official thinking in China but also about what the Russian government can and should consider doing to counter such an outcome.

The book entitled “China Gets Angry” has sold some 700,000 copies since its release three months ago, “Komsomolskaya Pravda” reports today. Written by five Chinese intellectuals, the book’s basic message is that China is destined to be the leader of the world and does not need to kowtow to anyone (www.kp.ru/daily/24313/506551/).

In discussing Russia, the book talks about it as “a living space” for the still growing Chinese people, and it pointedly suggests that “sober-thinking Chinese need to get rid of any doubt on this point: sooner or later we will be” in Siberia and the Russian Far East developing the vast areas that Moscow has not.

To assess this book, its implications of its argument for Russia, and whether Moscow has the time necessary to change course, “Komsomolskaya Pravda” turned to Vil’ Gel’bras, a longtime and internationally recognized Russian specialist on China who works at Moscow State University’s Institute of Asian and African countries.

Gel’bras, for his part, said Beijing’s interest in Russian territories east of the Urals was hardly surprising given the imbalance of population and agricultural land in China. For the 900 million peasants of China, there are only about 120 million hectares of land, approximately 0.13 per agricultural laborer. In Russia, on the other hand, there are 2.5 hectares per rural worker.

In addition to that reason to look north, Chinese demographic policy also is playing a role. Because of Beijing’s one child policy and the preference Chinese parents have for boys, the Russian sinologist says, the number of Chinese men will be 30 million greater than the number of Chinese women by 2015.

Asked by the paper where they will look for mates, Gel’bras responded with a question of his own “Haven’t you guessed already?”

All of this is a matter of concern, Gel’bras says. But he says that he “does not believe that [the Chinese] at the official level are thinking up any serious actions against [Russians].” They have “more than sufficient internal problems” – including unemployment – to occupy themselves at the present time.

But the Moscow China specialist continues, “the powers that be in China are not going to interview with the development of nationalist ideas like those contained in the book.” Indeed, he says, they have every reason to do so at the present time: such ideas expressed so bluntly “distract the people from the crisis.”

In response to a query as to how far the book expresses the views of officials, Gel’bras says that on the one hand, the book could not have been published if the authorities did not have a certain sympathy for its ideas. And on the other, he quotes Dun Tsin, the editor of “Jenmin Jibao,” as having expressed similar views.

In a recent article, Dun wrote that “in the final analysis, China apparently is preparing to subject the Russian Far East to its fundamental influence but in such a way that it will not cause Moscow nervousness. This influence will be based not on the enormous influx of Chinese settlers but on the not foreseen before ‘sinification’ of Russians.”

And the Chinese editor continued, “one fine day a serious crisis will arise, and in the face of the weakening political and military influence of Moscow, these Russians possibly will prefer to make the choice in favor of Beijing and not of their own government. In such a hypothetical situation, the Russian Far Eastern region possibly will become a province of China.”

According to Gel’bras, the Chinese are working in this direction already, offering Russian specialists “favorable conditions to acquire residences,” to study the Chinese language, and to work normally. And he adds, “many Far Easterners, cut off from Moscow, already are adapting themselves to these programs.”

Beijing’s approach which also involves the construction of highways and other infrastructure up to the Russian border and into Central Asia, something the Russian government has not done on its side of the line. And as a result, the Chinese are simply exploiting Moscow’s failures in this and other areas.

Looking out five to ten years, Gel’bras sees little reason for optimism from a Russian perspective, although he suggests “it is possible that [Russians] will yet change their approach … if of course [they] do not want to lose a sixth of the area of the country” through the quiet expansion of China that the bestselling book there suggests.

The Russian military has often played up the Chinese threat as have some Russian nationalists and residents of the Far East seeking investment from the center, but the statement of Gel’bras is more disturbing than any of their writings precisely because it is so calm and matter of fact about something that most Russians and many others would see as a huge tragedy.

Comments

[Jennifer Hor]

Russia is losing population through emigration, increasing deaths from HIV infection and lowered life expectancy so there will be areas in Siberia and the Russian Far East that will be depopulated. Russia will eventually pull back towards Europe. China and United States will compete to fill the territorial vacuum.

[Rotm]

Before resorting to alarmism I have to wonder if a gradual and peaceful integration of the far east into Chinese influence is even a bad thing. Im not sure it actually isnt in the interest of those living there outside of the currently changing differences in political systems.

[roberto]

Dream on

[roger]

patriotism in bad times = Nationalism, if you don't
remember the consequence of that,your either a new born or
your memory is very short.

[Mahatma Mahdi]

He gets up at 3 a.m. to make the long walk to the border. From there he catches a truck with others like himself. There are no jobs where he lives. He sees the Chinese city, the smoke from the factories from miles away. He has picked up the Chinese lanauage from the few years he makes the journey. At 6 a.m. he starts work. At 6 p.m. he leaves for the three hour jouney to home. The Chinese scorn these workers, they work for even less then themselves. But in this day of work he has made what he could on in a good month back at home. If there was work. There is always the fear that the Chinese will close the borders. They are as porous as the American. Once he is home he has five hours to rest, then off again. He wishes he could live like the Chinese. Moscow has forsaken them.

[roberto]

China manufactures "Wallmart crap". Anything from China with more than 3 moving parts breaks. They are going to rule the economic landscape? What a joke; a total hype job.

By the way - the Americans stopped buying. How are those China factories doing?

The Russians have yet to prove they can sustain a viable economy.

[roger]

China manufactures "Wallmart crap"
in 1938 you could buy watches made in Japan by the pounds.
they had the worst quality reputation in the world
nobody but nobody would buy (Made in Japan)
Doesn't anybody learn from the past?????

[sergei]

are chinese men going to start finding wives in russia? is that what the guy in the article was suggesting?

[Neil]

Roger, some of us do learn from the past, that's why it's a joke to think the Chinaman is capable of seizing half of Asia. When in history did they pull off this feat? When Japan seized Manchuria? The hundreds of years it took them to build the Great Wall to keep out the Mongols, which by the way failed. The same people who invented a total of three items in 5000 years: ceramic pots, wrought iron and gunpowder. The latter two they failed to figure out how to effectively use.

What they are not is Japanese. The Japanese were worthy opponents with a rich and intellectual history.

[Joe Kilkenny]

Neil, read up on history. China chose to isolate itself from the rest of the world. As the Middle Kingdom, it saw no need to interact with other less civilized nations. It certainly did not lack the means to dominate, it simply chose not to do so. It did however exert a great cultural and intellectual influence throughout Asia -- including on your worthy Japanese. Its failings were due to bad rulers -- something which as we know afflicts other nations as well.