The Nuclear Herding Effect

When people talk about "herding," they usually mean the instinctive tendency towards thinking and behaving like others. At its extreme, this sort of response can be seen when someone shouts "fire" in a crowded theater, for example, or when bubbles form in housing or equity markets.

But the urge to herd also extends to other realms, especially those involving matters of safety, security and self-preservation. That is one reason why, despite calls for restraint and increasing restrictions, our unsettled world will likely see the number of members in the Nuclear Club grow over time

In "Mohamed ElBaradei Warns of New Nuclear Age," Britain's Guardian interviews an expert who worries about such a development. The difference between him and me, however, is that he believes there is still time to reverse this expansionary tide; in my view, it is too late for that.

The number of potential nuclear weapons states could more than double in a few years unless the major powers take radical steps towards disarmament, the head of the UN's nuclear watchdog has warned.

In a Guardian interview, Mohamed ElBaradei said the threat of proliferation was particularly grave in the Middle East, a region he described as a "ticking bomb".

ElBaradei, the outgoing director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), said the current international regime limiting the spread of nuclear weapons was in danger of falling apart under its own inequity. "Any regime … has to have a sense of fairness and equity and it is not there," he said in an interview at his offices in Vienna.

He has presided over the IAEA for more than 11 years and is due to retire in November at the age of 67. A bitter diplomatic battle is under way over his successor.

The IAEA director general is the custodian of a global arms control regime that is increasingly beleaguered. It was built around the 1970 nuclear non-proliferation treaty (NPT) and the goal of restricting membership of the nuclear club to five postwar powers. It has been under strain in the last four decades, with Israel, India, Pakistan and North Korea developing weapons outside the NPT. But now ElBaradei says the system is in danger of collapse, with an abrupt spread in nuclear weapons technology.

"We still live in a world where if you have nuclear weapons, you are buying power, you are buying insurance against attack. That is not lost on those who do not have nuclear weapons, particularly in [conflict] regions."

He predicted that the next wave of proliferation would involve "virtual nuclear weapons states", who can produce plutonium or highly enriched uranium and possess the knowhow to make warheads, but who stop just short of assembling a weapon. They would therefore remain technically compliant with the NPT while being within a couple of months of deploying and using a nuclear weapon.

"This is the phenomenon we see now and what people worry about in Iran. And this phenomenon goes much beyond Iran. Pretty soon … you will have nine weapons states and probably another 10 or 20 virtual weapons states." ElBaradei pointed to the spread of uranium enrichment technology around the world, but he was most concerned about the Middle East.

"When you see a lot of concern about the Middle East, it's a result of people feeling totally repressed by their own government and feeling unjustly treated by the outside world. This combination makes it a ticking bomb."

ElBaradei described the acquisition of nuclear weapons by a terrorist group as the greatest threat facing the world, and pointed to the rise of the Taliban in Pakistan: "We are worried because there is a war in a country with nuclear weapons. We are worried because we still have 200 cases of illicit trafficking of nuclear material a year reported to us."

He argued that the only way back from the nuclear abyss was for the established nuclear powers to fulfil their NPT obligations and disarm as rapidly as possible. He said it was essential to generate momentum in that direction before the NPT comes up for review next April in New York. "There's a lot of work to be done but there are a lot of things we can do right away," ElBaradei said. "Slash the 27,000 warheads we have, 95% of which are in Russia and the US. You can easily slash [the arsenals] to 1,000 each, or even 500."

Only deep strategic cuts, coupled with internationally agreed bans on nuclear tests and on the production of weapons-grade fissile material, could restore the world's faith in arms control, he argued.

"If some of this concrete action is taken before the NPT [conference], you would have a completely different environment. All these so-called virtual weapons states, or virtual wannabe weapons states, will think twice … because then the major powers will have the moral authority to go after them and say: 'We are doing our part of the bargain. Now it is up to you.' "

ElBaradei won global fame – and the Nobel peace prize for himself and his agency – by standing up to the Bush and Blair governments over claims of Iraqi weapons of mass destruction. His relationships with the Obama administration, and to some extent the Brown government, are better, since both have embraced banning nuclear weapons. Obama has started talks with Moscow on mutual cuts in arsenals.

Comments

[roger]

in my view, it is too late for that.(agreed)
Since the dawn of history one thing is very consistent
the invention & fabrication of better & more powerful weapons
& they never remain a monopoly for long and more terrifying
they have always been used.So yes I agree this situation can
not & will not be reversed'
Be it ecology/economics or wars of mass killing the human
species is hell bent on self destruction

[Independent Accountant]

In my opinion El Baradei is either an idiot or a Moslem stooge. Disarmament programs fail. They have failed and will fail. Does anyone remember the 1922 Naval conference? Disarmament means US unilateral disarmament. Period. How would the Islamic world react to US disarmament? My guess: Pakistan will smuggle A-bombs into the US and detonate them at will. Who is El Baradei kidding?
Nobel Prize? Big deal. Didn't Yasser Arafat get one? Didn't Henry Kissinger? Not only should the US not disarm, we should modernize our strategic forces and not participate in any disarmament conferences. To stem nuclear proliferation, we should make an accord with Russia. Having made it, we then tell, not ask, tell Iran, you have 24 hours to reveal all your nuclear installations to the US and Russia. After 24 hours pass, with no response, it's bombs away. If would be profliferators realize the US and Russia will reduce their countries to rubble, they won't build nukes. We don't need the UN. We don't need fools like Clinton who gave North Korea $450 million to curtail its nuclear program. What a farce. We do need Russia's aid. What do we do? We hector Russia about what it does in its own back yard. Crazy. We attack Serbia, an Eastern Orthodox country to ingratiate ourselves with the Moslem world and we get a Talibanized Kosovo.