Many stories have been written about couples who stuck with doomed relationships, owners who put their hearts and souls into failing businesses, and military commanders who battled on in the face of insurmountable odds.
More often than not, it seems, those who hung in there -- because of their egos, memories of how things once were, or fears of an unknown future -- have not experienced the kinds of happy endings that you see in books and in films.
Instead, their efforts proved for naught, leaving them with nothing -- or worse.
Such are the realities of the current whirlwind of global trade talks, known as the Doha round. Although it has been apparent for some time that 1) the balance of power has shifted away from the West towards the geopolitical up-and-comers; 2) resource constraints have unsettled the dynamic between producers and consumers; and, 3) nations are losing faith in multilateralism, preferring the control and flexibility afforded by bilateral deal-making, diplomats cling on in hope that participating nations will figure out a way to come to agreement.
Indeed, in the latest update on the talks (which first broke down in the summer of 2006) from Reuters, "WTO's Doha Round Hangs in Balance as Gaps Persist," we see that hope continues to spring eternal.
Ministers are not yet ready to meet to seek a breakthrough in the World Trade Organisation's (WTO) Doha round of trade talks because of stubbornness on the part of trade powers, diplomats said on Monday.
The United States, China, India, Brazil, the European Union and other powers face a hectic week of further consultations, as WTO Director-General Pascal Lamy seeks to narrow the gaps and weighs the risks of calling a meeting this month, they said.
"He's certainly got negative signals from certain members," Brazil's WTO ambassador, Roberto Azevedo, told reporters after Lamy agreed with 30 ambassadors to hold further talks for a week or so before deciding whether to call in ministers.
The three issues that have now emerged as the most sensitive all involve core U.S. interests, suggesting the United States is the most sceptical about the prospects for a deal.
Only three weeks ago, leaders of the G20 rich and emerging nations agreed in Washington to strive for an outline deal in the Doha round by the end of this year to counter the financial crisis by boosting trade and warding off protectionism.
UNAMBIGUOUS SIGNALS
Despite progress at an ultimately unsuccessful meeting of ministers in July and in subsequent technical negotiations -- captured in revised farm and industry negotiating texts issued on Saturday -- big differences remain on sensitive issues.
"We are testing politically whether the texts are acceptable or not acceptable, Mexico's WTO ambassador Fernando de Mateo told reporters. "We're still in the process of consultation."
Lamy said he was ready to call a meeting for December 17-19 if consultations over the next week or so indicated a deal was more likely than not.
"We can still try to work out a compromise, if some key members show resolve in finding solutions to the remaining problems," he said in a note to the WTO's 153 members.
"Knowing how close we are to the end result I do not think that it would be sensible to give up now without trying."
Lamy said it was essential to make progress on three issues before convening ministers -- proposals to eliminate duties in some industrial sectors, a safeguard to help farmers in poor countries withstand a flood of imports, and U.S. cotton subsidies.
In weighing the pros and cons of calling a meeting, Lamy has received unambiguous political signals from the United States that many there are unhappy with the emerging deal.
Four senior U.S. lawmakers warned President George W. Bush last week not to rush into a Doha meeting that fails to deliver new export opportunities for U.S. business.
Some consider this is just tactical positioning before the endgame to bolster the top U.S. trade official, Susan Schwab.
"If the Senators hadn't written this letter, Susan Schwab should have asked for it," one ambassador joked.
The effect was comparable to French demands that seem to undermine the EU's position but in fact make it explicable to its partners.
But on Monday the U.S. National Association of Manufacturers (NAM) denounced the new text in industrial goods for failing to provide new business opportunities for U.S. exporters, not least through the lack of agreement on sector deals.
And the U.S. Senate Agriculture Committee and American Farm Bureau Federation rejected the new agriculture draft.
The support of both NAM and the Farm Bureau are essential if any deal is to get through the U.S. Congress.
The United States wants Brazil, India and China to commit to taking part in deals eliminating tariffs in individual sectors such as chemicals but the big emerging countries say participation must be voluntary.
Brazil's Azevedo said Lamy must now choose between the risk of holding a meeting that fails, and the guaranteed failure of not holding a meeting at all.
That would risk delaying the talks until well into 2009, as the momentum that developed in the run-up to the July meeting eroded, and the new U.S. administration of Barack Obama with its own priorities settles in.
With a complete breakdown of the global monetary system
in the works,Doha round will buried by mid 2009 at the tender
of 8
Posted by: roger | December 09, 2008 at 07:38 PM