No Longer United?

Many Americans would likely be surprised to learn that no small number of those who live outside our shores hold views about our future that are dramatically at odds with those espoused by Washington and the U.S. media.

In fact, I'm sure most U.S. citizens would dismiss as ridiculous the notion that the United States could ever be wracked by the kinds of separatist pressures that have been a continuing source of uncertainty and conflict in parts of Eastern Europe, Africa, South America, and elsewhere, including in developed countries like Belgium, where there is, as the BBC notes, "a growing divide between the mainly Dutch-speaking north and the mainly French-speaking south."

Well, like it or not, there are some foreign-based analysts -- who are not seen as crackpots in their own countries, by the way -- who argue that such a scenario is not only possible, but likely. In "Russian Analyst Predicts Decline and Breakup of U.S." Russian newswire RIA Novosti details the views of one such individual.

A leading Russian political analyst has said the economic turmoil in the United States has confirmed his long-held view that the country is heading for collapse, and will divide into separate parts.

Professor Igor Panarin said in an interview with the respected daily Izvestia published on Monday: "The dollar is not secured by anything. The country's foreign debt has grown like an avalanche, even though in the early 1980s there was no debt. By 1998, when I first made my prediction, it had exceeded $2 trillion. Now it is more than 11 trillion. This is a pyramid that can only collapse."

The paper said Panarin's dire predictions for the U.S. economy, initially made at an international conference in Australia 10 years ago at a time when the economy appeared strong, have been given more credence by this year's events.

When asked when the U.S. economy would collapse, Panarin said: "It is already collapsing. Due to the financial crisis, three of the largest and oldest five banks on Wall Street have already ceased to exist, and two are barely surviving. Their losses are the biggest in history. Now what we will see is a change in the regulatory system on a global financial scale: America will no longer be the world's financial regulator."

When asked who would replace the U.S. in regulating world markets, he said: "Two countries could assume this role: China, with its vast reserves, and Russia, which could play the role of a regulator in Eurasia."

Asked why he expected the U.S. to break up into separate parts, he said: "A whole range of reasons. Firstly, the financial problems in the U.S. will get worse. Millions of citizens there have lost their savings. Prices and unemployment are on the rise. General Motors and Ford are on the verge of collapse, and this means that whole cities will be left without work. Governors are already insistently demanding money from the federal center. Dissatisfaction is growing, and at the moment it is only being held back by the elections and the hope that Obama can work miracles. But by spring, it will be clear that there are no miracles."

He also cited the "vulnerable political setup", "lack of unified national laws", and "divisions among the elite, which have become clear in these crisis conditions."

He predicted that the U.S. will break up into six parts - the Pacific coast, with its growing Chinese population; the South, with its Hispanics; Texas, where independence movements are on the rise; the Atlantic coast, with its distinct and separate mentality; five of the poorer central states with their large Native American populations; and the northern states, where the influence from Canada is strong.

He even suggested that "we could claim Alaska - it was only granted on lease, after all."

On the fate of the U.S. dollar, he said: "In 2006 a secret agreement was reached between Canada, Mexico and the U.S. on a common Amero currency as a new monetary unit. This could signal preparations to replace the dollar. The one-hundred dollar bills that have flooded the world could be simply frozen. Under the pretext, let's say, that terrorists are forging them and they need to be checked."

When asked how Russia should react to his vision of the future, Panarin said: "Develop the ruble as a regional currency. Create a fully functioning oil exchange, trading in rubles... We must break the strings tying us to the financial Titanic, which in my view will soon sink."

Panarin, 60, is a professor at the Diplomatic Academy of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and has authored several books on information warfare.

Comments

[Lars]

That Russian analyst is delusional. Russia is a bankrupt country (again). There is no way they can play the role of an international financial regulator. Impossible. And them claiming Alaska may be a wet dream for many Russians, but it is also totally impossible.

Decline of USA and its eventual breakup into separate states in not a new idea. It may happen. And it may be a good thing too...

[Independent Accountant]

The professor's comments should not be dismissed. I've made similar comments: http://skepticaltexascpa.blogspot.com/2008/09/coming-civil-war.html.

[Vic]

I would agree with the fact that American power is diminishing. But I disagree with the author on two points: first - I don’t think anybody knows if this is a long term trend or a temporary setback and the second – the use of Russian political analysts’ to prove his point. I am Russian living in US and I can guaranty that I can find in Russian press at least 10 similar articles’ per year starting from 1950 until today. Unfortunately hate toward US in Russia is much deeper today.
After Soviet Union fall apart and became a conglomerate of the third world countries it may be logical to assume that US power should also diminish to offset global disbalance.? But who will offset China? And to those who predict failure of America I can only say that if it happens then disbalance on the world level would be so disastrous that WWII would look like a paintball game.

[Ted Murphy]

"I know you are, but what am I?"

[Ted Murphy]

"I know you are, but what am I?"

[THECOMINGDEPRESSION]

Peter Schiff on the upcoming collapse of the US dollar and HUGE upswing on GOLD coming
http://www.thecomingdepression.blogspot.com

[John]

I agree in general with the concept of American influence and power in the world diminishing. I live in Europe and have seen the decline in popular and political opinions of the U.S. over the years (especially the last 7).

However, clearly biased comments like this one bring nothing to the discussion. Russia as a regulator for Europe!--give me a break. The only way they would be have such power is if they threatened to cutoff the pipelines that provide roughly 40% of Europe's energy. This is yet another reason why Europe needs to advance the progress in non-petrol energy regardless of the global economic situation.

This new blog of yours was just removed from my RSS reader for spreading biased propaganda that has little in the way of facts. I ordered your book so hopefully it contains more substance...

[A. Zarkov]

Generally a nation consists of a set of people that share a common language, ethnic or racial identity and other cultural attributes. Without a nation it's hard to have a nation-state as we can see in Belgium. Since the change in immigration law in 1965, the US has moved from a largely European country to a so-called "multicultural" country. The theory being that the US is an "idea," and not a nation in the classical sense. In other words, immigrants are transformed into a new American breed almost by virtue of simply crossing the border. The reality is much different as even a brief visit to Southern California will demonstrate.

Robert Putnam (author of "Bowling Alone") conducted a national study and found that more ethnic diversity leads to less trust within a community. Los Angeles is the most diverse and least trusting city in the US according to Putnam. This fragmenting of the US is leading to its destruction as a nation, where the market-state is replacing the nation-state. But what happens when the "market" part disintegrates as happens in a Depression? Perhaps nothing is left and the nation-state simply breaks up into smaller parts each with its own individual identity. Thus Panarin's prediction's prediction has some credibility. But only time will tell. It all depends how how much US national identity has disintegrated and bad the the impending Depression will be.

[JLS]

"When asked who would replace the U.S. in regulating world markets, he said: "Two countries could assume this role: China, with its vast reserves, and Russia, which could play the role of a regulator in Eurasia.""
Markets need confidence and though Russia and Chinese have money nobody trust them, because their society are not enough free and transparent as Western Country.
Why people invest in US or Switerzland, because they have confidence in their economy and thier political system, who has confidence in Russia and China ?
"Peter Schiff on the upcoming collapse of the US dollar and HUGE upswing on GOLD coming"
Be careful if deflation is coming, stay cash, don't buy gold.
" The theory being that the US is an "idea," and not a nation in the classical sense. In other words, immigrants are transformed into a new American breed almost by virtue of simply crossing the border."
I don't think to USA could break up has Professor Igor Panarin said, but some state like Texas" maybe, could became independant because American don't like to be associated with failure, and the failure of Washington and Wall Street could lead to some separatism.

[Armando]

Truly hilarious! Yes - the US is in dire straits, but Russia is a third-world country of the WORST sort!! Although it goes without saying, the truth is that Russia has a much greater chance of breaking up than the US.

[roger]

all countries that practiced colonialism are being transformed,
it's a recorded fact that Conquerors assimilate a lot of the culture
from the Conquered no matter if this is done by military force as in
the 1800's or by financial domination (USA) another historical fact
Conqueror's always disintegrate.As for predicting an exact scenario
of the future...that is risky,foolish & a waste of energy, it would
be much productive/useful to to learn and get an understanding of
the causes that bring about such painful & horrendous metamorphosis'

[Black Star Ranch]

The thought that our Country can continue to exist as a whole while maintaining its excessive misuses of resources, educational environments, governmental expenditure largess, and constant societal "tinkering", is as much "folly" as the Russians being the "foxes in charge of the henhouse" assertion.

[hswalj]

Go have some more vodka